Investment Monthly
Key Takeaways:
House Views
- Markets and economists describe different worlds. The global economy faces a complex set of supply shocks, but markets have shaken off geopolitical worries, helped by strong corporate profits. The confusing macro landscape means episodic volatility is to be expected
- As spillovers from the AI capex boom become more apparent, strong profits performance should hold and broaden beyond borders into non-tech sectors. Emerging markets could be well-placed to benefit
- Investors should also “diversify the diversifiers”. Higher yields in bond markets mean that “diversified income” opportunities have improved across fixed income and defensive equity sectors
Macro Outlook
- While there are signs of progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk remains elevated. With oil still around USD100/barrel and supply constraints for some other commodities, inflation pressures are likely to persist, acting as a headwind to growth
- US activity is solid but imbalanced. Booming AI investment and wealth effects are offsetting soft non-tech capex and weak household real income growth. Surveys suggest tepid European growth could weaken further
- Asia's AI-led industrial upcycle faces energy constraints, as well as intense import competition from China. China’s growth remains resilient, supported by technology and exports, but continues to look unbalanced
Policy Outlook
- Policy uncertainty remains high. Central banks face difficult trade-offs between growth and inflation, pushing governments to make greater use of fiscal and industrial policy. But high government debt levels are a constraint
- Concern over persistent US inflation may delay further Fed easing until 2027. Comments by ECB policy makers point to a near-term rate hike while the BoE may be pushed into tightening if inflation expectations rise
- China’s policy support remains focused on balancing short-term macro stability with longer-term structural priorities (innovation & tech self-reliance, energy security and economic rebalancing). In Asia, relative exposure to AI and the energy shock is driving a varied pace and scale of policy support
Scenarios
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TThe commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at June 2026.
House View
Despite supply shocks and a complicated macro landscape, markets are in a “different world”, with the AI boom boosting profit growth. Profits should broaden beyond borders into non-tech sectors, with emerging markets potentially a major winner. Investors should “diversify the diversifiers”, with a focus on income in bonds and stocks
- Equities – Global indices have pushed higher, with strong profits growth driven by the AI boom and steady real rates. We expect “broadening out 2.0” driven by AI spillovers to upstream and downstream sectors
- Government bonds – Yields remain elevated amid inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and policy rate uncertainty. But this has improved the income opportunities in fixed income, which could add ballast to portfolio returns
- Corporate bonds – Investment grade credit spreads remain tight amid robust fundamentals. High yield credit faces pressure from uneven US growth and geopolitics. We maintain a preference for higher quality
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Past performance does not predict future returns. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. You cannot invest directly in an index. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. House view represents a >12-month investment view across major asset classes in our portfolios. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at June 2026.
Asset class performance at a glance
The AI boom and strong profits growth drove global stock markets in May – although supply shocks and geopolitical headwinds caused volatility in places. In bond markets, longer-term yields climbed to multi-year highs on rising inflation and fiscal concerns. The US dollar index strengthened, while the gold price weakened
- Government bonds – Shorter-dated US bond yields rose as markets priced the possibility of modest Fed tightening on higher oil prices and solid growth data. US 10-year Treasury yields rose in response to inflation fears and fiscal concerns
- Equities – US stocks hit fresh highs on bumper profits and AI excitement – with spillover tech rallies in Taiwan and South Korea. European stocks were softer on profits divergence and inflation fears. China’s onshore ‘A’ shares were strong
- Alternatives – After a brief rally, gold lost ground in May on higher-for-longer policy rate expectations. Copper saw further strength, while infrastructure and real estate indices were steady. Brent oil hovered close to USD100
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Source: Bloomberg, all data above as at close of business 31 May 2026 in USD, total return, month-to-date terms. Note: Asset class performance is represented by different indices. Global Equities: MSCI ACWI Net Total Return USD Index. Global Emerging Market Equities: MSCI Emerging Market Net Total Return USD Index. Corporate Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global HY Total Return Index value unhedged. Bloomberg Barclays Global IG Total Return Index unhedged. Government bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Treasuries Total Return Index. JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return local currency. Commodities and real estate: Gold Spot $/OZ, Other commodities: S&P GSCI Total Return CME. Real Estate: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Index TR USD. Crypto: Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Macro scenarios
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Market scenarios
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, June 2026.
Economic outlook
Fed on hold, ECB setting up a hike
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, consensus numbers from Bloomberg, June 2026.
Events calendar 2026: six-month forward looking
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Past performance does not predict future returns. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, June 2026.
Investment Views
Asset class positioning
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at June 2026.
On Top of Investors’ Minds
Why are markets up despite big macro risks?
The global economy is facing a complex set of supply shocks that is pulling the macro system in confusing and sometimes contradictory directions. Meanwhile, markets have shaken off geopolitical worries impressively, helped by gangbusters profits growth in the US and North Asia. Essentially, the economy and markets are living in “different worlds”.
As the spillovers of the AI capex boom become more apparent, we think strong profits performance can hold, and importantly should continue to broaden “beyond borders” into non-tech sectors. Strong profits mean forward price/earnings ratios aren’t yet a constraint. But trailing metrics look more stretched: the US price/book is above 5x, and above 8x for the NASDAQ. If profits wobble, valuations could quickly matter again for market direction.
Meanwhile, capex booms normally push up the cost of capital – but not in this cycle, so far. Treasury yields remain within their last three-year range, and credit spreads are near multi-decade lows. Bond yields will need to be monitored, and there are other constraints. AI compute costs have almost doubled. Energy prices have spiked. Crowding out can show up in different places. Nevertheless, a low volatility summer in markets is a reasonable assumption.
S&P 500 around geopolitical events since 1939
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Are stock markets in a bubble?
US stocks are hitting new highs, but there are worries over narrow market leadership, runaway prices, and sky-high valuations in the tech sector. Is it a bubble? There are three factors to watch:
#1. Momentum. Tech companies have taken up a growing share of total US market value in recent years. And with semiconductor and other AI hardware stocks accelerating, recent price moves are staring to echo the dotcom bubble. Upcoming blockbuster tech IPOs are adding to the frenzy, and making momentum look frothy.
#2. Valuations. The long-term Shiller PE ratio looks high, especially in the context of previous supply shocks. Likewise, on trailing numbers, price-to-earnings and price-to-book valuations look full. But on forward earnings, valuations are still okay. And the equity risk premium isn’t as bubbly as it was in the dotcom years.
#3. Liquidity. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, warned of “irrational exuberance” in 1996, before playing a part in bursting the dotcom bubble by hiking rates in 1999 and 2000. With markets now beginning to price policy hikes, a tightening of liquidity could eventually weigh on performance.
For now, valuations generally look contained despite exuberance around profits – but careful stock selection is warranted in US tech. We remain neutral on the US market overall.
PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index
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Why have bond yields been rising, and does it pose a risk to stocks?
Global bond yields have risen over the past quarter, and investors are asking whether this spike is finally what kills the stock market? The answer is that it depends on whether the bond move is “good” or “bad”.
“Good” bond yield rises come from stronger growth. Think of the late 1990s tech boom. If the investment narrative assumes a productivity surge, or rapid profits growth, higher yields can still be a benign backdrop for stocks.
“Bad” yield rises come when there’s no growth to offset higher discount rates. 2022 is the classic example: inflation surged, real rates reset higher, and equities had to de-rate.
So, which is it now? The answer is: it’s not too bad. Since February, most of the move in bond yields has been at the short end, with a big shift in central bank policy expectations. At the long end, the term premium has edged higher. But while nominal yields are up, inflation adjusted “real” yields remain low across the curve. That’s good news for stocks, which are naturally inflation hedged, and sensitive to real rates. Meanwhile, profits growth stays gangbusters and expected growth is outpacing the rise in the discount rate – for now. It is worth keeping a close eye on bond yields… but right now, it’s a move stocks can live with.
US 10-year Treasury yield versus 12-month forward S&P earnings yield
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How have EM performed this year so far?
Emerging market assets have had a very strong year so far, quickly recovering after the initial outbreak of the Middle East conflict. EM stock/bond/FX resilience has been impressive versus stereotypes, and previous risk-off phases, including the 2022 Ukraine shock.
Several factors explain this. Improved policy frameworks and policy credibility has reduced the passthrough of the inflation shock. Many EMs still have high real-rate buffers to protect against higher inflation. Meanwhile, bigger domestic investor bases mitigate big outflows, and EM assets were still cheap and unloved at the start of Iran crisis.
North Asia is hugely benefiting from the AI megatrend given the big index weights to tech, and is reflected in stellar profits performance, while Latin America wins from the materials boom. These different drivers imply portfolio diversification, alongside cheaper valuations and the potential for a weaker dollar.
China and India have been struggling, with China still experiencing weak domestic demand - even though exports are booming - and India is facing challenges from less attractive valuations. Nonetheless, the longer-term story remains positive in both markets, with India GDP growth still world beating, and China transitioning to an advanced tech and manufacturing powerhouse.
Sector weights
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Past performance does not predict future returns. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. You cannot invest directly in an index. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at June 2026.
Market Data
May 2026
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 May 2026. (*) Indices expressed as total returns. All others are price returns.
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All total returns quoted in USD terms.
Data sourced from MSCI AC World Total Return Index, MSCI USA Total Return Index, MSCI AC Europe Total Return Index, MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Total Return Index, MSCI Japan Total Return Index, MSCI Latam Total Return Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index.
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 May 2026.
Important Information
Basis of Views and Definitions of 'Asset class positioning' tables
- Views are based on regional HSBC Asset Management Asset Allocation meetings held throughout May 2026, HSBC Asset Management’s long-term expected return forecasts which were generated as at 30 April 2026, our portfolio optimisation process and actual portfolio positions
- Icons: ↑ View on this asset class has been upgraded – No change ↓ View on this asset class has been downgraded
- Underweight, overweight and neutral classifications are the high-level asset allocations tilts applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios, which reflect a combination of our long-term valuation signals, our shorter-term cyclical views and actual positioning in portfolios. The views are expressed with reference to global portfolios. However, individual portfolio positions may vary according to mandate, benchmark, risk profile and the availability and riskiness of individual asset classes in different regions
- "Overweight" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) a positive tilt towards the asset class
- "Underweight" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would) have a negative tilt towards the asset class
- "Neutral" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) neither a particularly negative or positive tilt towards the asset class
- For global investment-grade corporate bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, USD investment-grade corporate bonds and EUR and GBP investment-grade corporate bonds are determined relative to the global investment-grade corporate bond universe
- For Asia ex Japan equities, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the region at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, individual country views are determined relative to the Asia ex Japan equities universe as of 30 April 2026
- Similarly, for EM government bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, EM Asian Fixed income views are determined relative to the EM government bonds (hard currency) universe as of 31 May 2026
For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. You cannot invest directly in an index.
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