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Macro Insight - Global growth scenarios

COVID-19 has triggered an unprecedented sudden-stop. We have devised three scenarios to map the range of possible outcomes for the global economy.
12 May 2020
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    Key takeaways:

    • COVID-19 has triggered an unprecedented sudden-stop to the global economy
    • The macro outlook reflects a tug-of-war between containment measures and macro-stabilisation policies
    • Challenges in restarting economic activity and the risk of policy under-delivery means we are tactically cautious in our global multi-asset portfolios
    • For longer-term investors, however, risky asset class valuations continue to look relatively attractive. We estimate that our central scenario is materially weaker than consensus expectations